tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Jacksonville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 64%

  1. 05:02 PHX → 12:44 PHL
    AA 1511 · American · 4h 42m · 97% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 16m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:00 PHL → 18:29 JAX
    AA 3135 · American · 2h 29m · 68% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 10h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 151 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 16m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip10h 27mPHX 05:02 to JAX 18:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.