tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 84%

  1. 05:02 PHX → 12:44 PHL
    AA 1511 · American · 4h 42m · 97% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:34 PHL → 17:45 SDF
    AA 4720 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 11m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 125 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 50m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip9h 43mPHX 05:02 to SDF 17:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.