tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Tampa via Charlotte: arrives on time 42%

  1. 16:30 BNA → 19:05 CLT
    AA 1526 · American · 1h 35m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:16 CLT → 21:59 TPA
    AA 2022 · American · 1h 43m · 68% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 29mBNA 16:30 to TPA 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.