tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Cleveland via Philadelphia: arrives on time 55%

  1. 08:05 LAX → 16:27 PHL
    AA 1528 · American · 5h 23m · 88% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 PHL → 19:06 CLE
    AA 5862 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 51m · 81% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 01mLAX 08:05 to CLE 19:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.