tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 75%

  1. 17:40 PHL → 20:36 LAX
    AA 1528 · American · 5h 56m · 63% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 56m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:32 LAX → 23:59 SFO
    AA 6510 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 27m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 71 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 56m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip9h 19mPHL 17:40 to SFO 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.