tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Buffalo via New York: arrives on time 38%

  1. 13:54 DFW → 18:28 LGA
    AA 1535 · American · 3h 34m · 58% on time, 6.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 LGA → 21:07 BUF
    AA 4521 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 74% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (6.5% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 13mDFW 13:54 to BUF 21:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.