tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → St Louis via Boston: arrives on time 36%

  1. 12:42 MIA → 16:17 BOS
    AA 1538 · American · 3h 35m · 72% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:11 BOS → 19:21 STL
    AA 4678 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 10m · 56% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 39mMIA 12:42 to STL 19:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.