tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:31 BOS → 21:00 ORD
    AA 1554 · American · 3h 29m · 61% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 ORD → 23:15 MSN
    AA 4698 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 10m · 68% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 44mBOS 18:31 to MSN 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.