tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Washington via Boston: arrives on time 32%

  1. 10:50 ORD → 14:20 BOS
    AA 1563 · American · 2h 38m · 58% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:19 BOS → 17:21 DCA
    AA 4380 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 54m · 62% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 23mORD 10:50 to DCA 17:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.