tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New York via Boston: arrives on time 38%

  1. 08:42 PHX → 16:55 BOS
    AA 1564 · American · 5h 13m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:46 BOS → 19:29 JFK
    AA 4390 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 43m · 57% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip7h 47mPHX 08:42 to JFK 19:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.