tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 38%

  1. 17:24 RDU → 19:45 LAX
    AA 1569 · American · 5h 21m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 LAX → 22:06 SFO
    AA 6260 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip7h 47mRDU 17:24 to SFO 22:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.