tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → San Diego via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 17:41 BNA → 19:55 ORD
    AA 1570 · American · 2h 14m · 51% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 ORD → 23:26 SAN
    AA 2457 · American · 4h 16m · 45% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 45mBNA 17:41 to SAN 23:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.