tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → San Antonio via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:41 BNA → 19:55 ORD
    AA 1570 · American · 2h 14m · 51% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:08 ORD → 23:59 SAT
    AA 431 · American · 2h 51m · 47% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip6h 18mBNA 17:41 to SAT 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.