tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:41 BNA → 19:55 ORD
    AA 1570 · American · 2h 14m · 51% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 ORD → 23:13 LAX
    AA 613 · American · 4h 24m · 51% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip7h 32mBNA 17:41 to LAX 23:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.