tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Knoxville via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:41 BNA → 19:55 ORD
    AA 1570 · American · 2h 14m · 51% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 ORD → 23:53 TYS
    AA 3710 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 48m · 69% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 12mBNA 17:41 to TYS 23:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.