tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Tulsa via Chicago: arrives on time 53%

  1. 17:41 BNA → 19:55 ORD
    AA 1570 · American · 2h 14m · 51% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 ORD → 00:10 TUL +1 day
    AA 4281 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 01m · 75% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 85 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 10m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 25mBNA 17:41 to TUL 00:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.