tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Indianapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:41 BNA → 19:55 ORD
    AA 1570 · American · 2h 14m · 51% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 ORD → 23:05 IND
    AA 4594 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 19m · 82% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 23mBNA 17:41 to IND 23:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.