tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:27 AUS → 18:35 ORD
    AA 1574 · American · 3h 08m · 52% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 34m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:09 ORD → 23:30 EWR
    AA 2549 · American · 2h 21m · 45% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 49 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 34m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 03mAUS 15:27 to EWR 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.