tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Hebron via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:27 AUS → 18:35 ORD
    AA 1574 · American · 3h 08m · 52% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 ORD → 22:00 CVG
    AA 3690 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 31m · 74% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 33mAUS 15:27 to CVG 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.