tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Milwaukee via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:27 AUS → 18:35 ORD
    AA 1574 · American · 3h 08m · 52% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 ORD → 21:01 MKE
    AA 4888 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 02m · 53% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 34mAUS 15:27 to MKE 21:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.