tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Aspen via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 15:27 AUS → 18:35 ORD
    AA 1574 · American · 3h 08m · 52% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:49 ORD → 21:56 ASE
    AA 6186 · American, flown by SkyWest · 3h 07m · 63% on time, 11.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (11.4% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip7h 29mAUS 15:27 to ASE 21:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.