tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:27 AUS → 18:35 ORD
    AA 1574 · American · 3h 08m · 52% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:40 ORD → 21:25 BNA
    AA 6326 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 45m · 53% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 58mAUS 15:27 to BNA 21:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.