tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 90%

  1. 21:50 PHX → 05:47 JFK
    AA 1587 · American · 4h 57m · 87% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 10m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:57 JFK → 10:05 ORD +1 day
    AA 4450 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 08m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 85 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 10m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip10h 15mPHX 21:50 to ORD 10:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.