tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via New York: arrives on time 85%

  1. 21:50 PHX → 05:47 JFK
    AA 1587 · American · 4h 57m · 87% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 48m layover in New York (JFK) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 08:35 JFK → 10:02 DCA +1 day
    DL 5750 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 27m · 92% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 78 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 48m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip9h 12mPHX 21:50 to DCA 10:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.