tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Harrisburg via Philadelphia: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:29 ATL → 20:40 PHL
    AA 1590 · American · 2h 11m · 59% on time, 6.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHL → 23:10 MDT
    AA 5944 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 15m · 79% on time, 4.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (6.5% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (4.7% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 41mATL 18:29 to MDT 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.