tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 17:38 BOS → 19:59 ORD
    AA 1592 · American · 3h 21m · 38% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:54 ORD → 22:36 PHX
    AA 332 · American · 3h 42m · 51% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip7h 58mBOS 17:38 to PHX 22:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.