tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Harrisburg via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 17:38 BOS → 19:59 ORD
    AA 1592 · American · 3h 21m · 38% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:18 ORD → 00:22 MDT +1 day
    AA 4640 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 04m · 80% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 44mBOS 17:38 to MDT 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.