tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Minneapolis via Miami: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:40 DCA → 20:34 MIA
    AA 1612 · American · 2h 54m · 62% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 MIA → 00:09 MSP +1 day
    AA 458 · American · 3h 47m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 29mDCA 17:40 to MSP 00:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.