tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Sarasota/Bradenton via Miami: arrives on time 75%

  1. 17:40 DCA → 20:34 MIA
    AA 1612 · American · 2h 54m · 62% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 20m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:54 MIA → 23:59 SRQ
    AA 4071 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 05m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 95 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 20m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 19mDCA 17:40 to SRQ 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.