tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Nashville via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:46 BUF → 19:10 DFW
    AA 1615 · American · 3h 24m · 58% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:12 DFW → 22:08 BNA
    AA 1500 · American · 1h 55m · 54% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 21mBUF 16:46 to BNA 22:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.