tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Philadelphia via Charlotte: arrives on time 46%

  1. 13:47 BUF → 15:49 CLT
    AA 1616 · American · 2h 02m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:45 CLT → 18:41 PHL
    AA 1838 · American · 1h 52m · 70% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 50mBUF 13:47 to PHL 18:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.