tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:47 BUF → 15:49 CLT
    AA 1616 · American · 2h 02m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:47 CLT → 18:22 DCA
    AA 3263 · American · 1h 35m · 52% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip4h 35mBUF 13:47 to DCA 18:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.