tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Atlanta via Charlotte: arrives on time 31%

  1. 13:47 BUF → 15:49 CLT
    AA 1616 · American · 2h 02m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:46 CLT → 18:14 ATL
    AA 5040 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 28m · 46% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip4h 27mBUF 13:47 to ATL 18:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.