tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Memphis via Miami: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:39 BWI → 21:25 MIA
    AA 1619 · American · 2h 46m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:28 MIA → 23:58 MEM
    AA 1551 · American · 2h 27m · 57% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip6h 16mBWI 18:39 to MEM 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.