tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Jacksonville via Miami: arrives on time 37%

  1. 18:39 BWI → 21:25 MIA
    AA 1619 · American · 2h 46m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 28m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:53 MIA → 00:15 JAX +1 day
    AA 416 · American · 1h 22m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 43 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 28m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 36mBWI 18:39 to JAX 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.