tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 16%

  1. 19:17 BWI → 21:42 DFW
    AA 1626 · American · 3h 25m · 52% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DFW → 23:59 SMF
    AA 509 · American · 3h 29m · 44% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip7h 42mBWI 19:17 to SMF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.