tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Miami via Chicago: arrives on time 26%

  1. 10:21 LAX → 16:50 ORD
    AA 1628 · American · 4h 29m · 52% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 22:17 MIA
    AA 2690 · American · 3h 17m · 45% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip8h 56mLAX 10:21 to MIA 22:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.