tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 14%

  1. 10:21 LAX → 16:50 ORD
    AA 1628 · American · 4h 29m · 52% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 ORD → 21:00 EWR
    AA 3253 · American · 2h 24m · 47% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip7h 39mLAX 10:21 to EWR 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.