tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Santa Ana via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 36%

  1. 15:46 BWI → 18:12 DFW
    AA 1629 · American · 3h 27m · 57% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 DFW → 20:22 SNA
    AA 806 · American · 3h 07m · 68% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 36mBWI 15:46 to SNA 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.