tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Buffalo via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:22 DCA → 18:54 ORD
    AA 1630 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 ORD → 22:47 BUF
    AA 564 · American · 1h 48m · 57% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 25mDCA 17:22 to BUF 22:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.