tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Manchester via Chicago: arrives on time 60%

  1. 17:22 DCA → 18:54 ORD
    AA 1630 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:11 ORD → 23:30 MHT
    AA 4149 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 31m · 84% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 20mDCA 17:22 to MHT 23:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.