tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 61%

  1. 17:22 DCA → 18:54 ORD
    AA 1630 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:03 ORD → 23:56 ROC
    AA 4219 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 53m · 75% on time, 5.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 84 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 09m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (5.2% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 34mDCA 17:22 to ROC 23:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.