tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Milwaukee via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:22 DCA → 18:54 ORD
    AA 1630 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 ORD → 21:01 MKE
    AA 4888 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 02m · 53% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 39mDCA 17:22 to MKE 21:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.