tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Louisville via Charlotte: arrives on time 47%

  1. 20:16 BWI → 21:55 CLT
    AA 1637 · American · 1h 37m · 63% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:02 CLT → 00:31 SDF +1 day
    AA 671 · American · 1h 30m · 73% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 16mBWI 20:16 to SDF 00:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.