tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 24%

  1. 18:56 DEN → 19:52 PHX
    AA 1638 · American · 1h 56m · 51% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHX → 22:25 RNO
    AA 1765 · American · 1h 47m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 29mDEN 18:56 to RNO 22:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.