tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Sacramento via Phoenix: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:56 DEN → 19:52 PHX
    AA 1638 · American · 1h 56m · 51% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:48 PHX → 22:42 SMF
    AA 2048 · American · 1h 54m · 68% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 46mDEN 18:56 to SMF 22:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.