tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Medford via Phoenix: arrives on time 41%

  1. 18:56 DEN → 19:52 PHX
    AA 1638 · American · 1h 56m · 51% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 PHX → 23:38 MFR
    AA 4915 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 28m · 72% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 42mDEN 18:56 to MFR 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.