Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Bozeman → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 33%
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17:03 BZN → 21:30 ORDAA 1639 · American · 3h 27m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
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1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 dayAA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled
Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip8h 10mBZN 17:03 to PHX 00:14, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.