tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New York via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 27%

  1. 12:19 PHX → 16:55 DFW
    AA 1648 · American · 2h 36m · 74% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:43 DFW → 22:30 JFK
    AA 1203 · American · 3h 51m · 46% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip7h 15mPHX 12:19 to JFK 22:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.