tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Jacksonville via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 36%

  1. 12:19 PHX → 16:55 DFW
    AA 1648 · American · 2h 36m · 74% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 DFW → 21:14 JAX
    AA 2449 · American · 2h 31m · 58% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 57mPHX 12:19 to JAX 21:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.